January 2026 opened with transaction volume nearly 30% above January 2025 and ahead of recent months — a clear signal that buyer attention is improving. Buyers remain selective and underwriting is still disciplined, but the aperture is widening. Specialization, capability, and durability continue to be rewarded, yet we expect broader interest in traditional models as buyers pursue network density and begin positioning for a potential upcycle.
January also showed signs of a possible inflection point, with tender rejections and rates spiking. While this appears supply-driven — shipment volumes, imports, and inventories remain compressed — capacity rationalization is becoming visible due to regulation, structural pressures, and carrier attrition. If demand rebounds amid continued capacity pressure, this market could “melt up” quickly.
If these green shoots mark the beginning of an upcycle, we expect backlog release from founder-owned sellers first, followed by PE-held assets, increasing competition for buyer mindshare later in the year. Competitive tension could build early as buyers move before pricing resets fully flow through P&Ls and valuation expectations re-anchor. Underwriting priorities may also shift — from 2025’s emphasis on stability and resilience to a 2026 focus on credible growth plans, pricing governance, and customer retention as pricing power returns.
We expect meaningful acceleration in M&A through 2026, driven by sidelined sellers re-entering the market, improving financing and sentiment, and over-held PE portfolios pursuing add-ons ahead of exits.
