Transaction activity remained steady through February and early March, with strategics leaning further across nearly all transportation and logistics verticals and broader buyer engagement continuing to build. Buyers remain selective, and underwriting discipline persists, but the aperture has widened meaningfully, and seller inbound activity has increased. The overall pattern suggests more participants are positioning ahead of a more active M&A environment.
On the operating side, February data added support for an inflecting market, though demand improvement remains modest. The more important driver remains capacity strain shaped by policy and regulatory dynamics rather than by volume recovery. Driver requirements, tariff-related disruptions, and increased enforcement around bad actors, ghost drivers, and ELD compliance are all contributing to a tighter operating backdrop.
If these pressures persist, capacity rationalization could accelerate further, particularly if additional regulatory developments emerge — including the potential enactment of the Dalilah Law or a higher effective standard on carrier vetting and brokerage liability stemming from Montgomery v. Caribe. Carriers already appear to be positioning for improved pricing conditions, reflected in the strongest Class 8 truck order activity since 2022. While optimism should remain measured until demand recovery becomes clearer, the setup for a rising-rate environment and accelerating M&A activity through the year is becoming increasingly favorable.
