The market’s posture entering March was the most constructive in two years. Whether deal volume ultimately reflects that is a separate question — one temporarily complicated by the Iran fuel shock — but the underlying indicators continue to move in the right direction. Strategics are leaning in across verticals, private equity is moving with greater urgency as hold periods extend, and previously sidelined sellers are beginning to engage. The bid-ask gap has not disappeared, but it has narrowed.
On the operating side, the data entering March was the strongest in years. ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index reached its highest level since 2022, DAT spot rates posted a seventh consecutive monthly gain, and the load-to-truck ratio continued to tighten — all consistent with a supply-driven recovery building momentum. The Iran conflict reshaped the cost equation. Diesel crossed $5.38 per gallon nationally by late March, amid Strait of Hormuz constraints and uncertain fuel visibility. For small and independent operators — without surcharge protection or hedging programs — the cost shock is acute. Fleets are parking equipment, and available truck postings fell to 10-year lows across major equipment types, accelerating capacity rationalization.
The regulatory environment is compounding the pressure from a different direction. The FMCSA's non-domiciled CDL rule went into effect on March 16th, with roughly 97% of the approximately 200,000 affected drivers unable to renew under the new standards. Dalilah's Law cleared the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. If enacted, driver pool contraction would accelerate meaningfully. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II in early March — a decision that will determine brokerage liability and reshape vetting standards and competitive dynamics. None of these is a speculative tail risk. They are active, near-term developments.
Taken together, the setup is more nuanced than a simple rate recovery story. For buyers, this creates selective entry points for assets with pricing resilience, customer embeddedness, and operational durability. For sellers with those characteristics, waiting for full clarity may mean missing the most favorable window of the cycle.
